Hurricane exercise within the Atlantic Ocean sometimes begins to ramp up in earnest round mid-August. However issues had been eerily quiet with no single storm to be seen anyplace in August. After predicting an above-average hurricane season, many forecasters have been left questioning about their preliminary predictions of a busy season. In accordance with Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State College, “It was actually, actually lifeless. We had no storms in August, which was the primary time since 1997.”
That was till final week when the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season made its presence identified, with two hurricanes making landfall. Early within the week, the Canadian Maritimes was hit laborious by Hurricane Fiona making landfall in Nova Scotia as a Class 2 hurricane simply days earlier than Hurricane Ian arrived in Florida and the Carolinas.
Hurricane Fiona Harm Evaluation
Areas impacted essentially the most within the Maritime Area embrace Prince Edward Island (PEI), Cape Breton NS, and Port Aux Basques, Newfoundland. The highly effective storm Fiona slammed into the area’s jap fishing and farm industries, smashing wharves, meals processing vegetation, and potato storage services that can take months to restore. Fishing is a essential trade in Canada’s Atlantic provinces, which produce a number of the world’s largest lobster exports and PEI, the most important potato-producing area in Canada, was particularly laborious hit.
Main potato growers on PEI, the place Fiona left a path of destruction, report their potato crop is about to be harvested. Apart from being unable to get onto the fields to reap, they report that crop harm ought to be minimal. The extra vital difficulty is the ability outages throughout the island, that means processing vegetation gained’t have the ability to unload and retailer the crop.
In accordance with Accuweather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers, the full harm and financial loss from Fiona in Atlantic Canada is estimated to fall between $2-4 billion. That is along with the estimated $10 billion in harm and financial impression from Fiona in Puerto Rico earlier than making its means alongside the U.S. East Coast.
Hurricane Ian Harm Evaluation
Hurricane Ian’s impression continues to be being assessed virtually every week after landfall. Many are nonetheless with out energy on prime of the tragic lack of life from one of the vital devastating hurricanes to hit the state. In accordance with CoreLogic, a number one world property info supplier, residential and business wind and storm surge insured loss estimates in Florida for Hurricane Ian are estimated between $28 billion and $47 billion. Corelogic’s Affiliate Vice President, Hazard & Danger Administration, Tom Larsen, mentioned, “That is the most expensive Florida storm since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992 and a document variety of properties and properties have been misplaced on account of Hurricane Ian’s intense and harmful traits.” Corelogic additionally anticipates the restoration can be gradual and difficult on account of inflation at a 40-year excessive, rates of interest nearing 7%, and labor and supplies nonetheless in excessive demand.
The impression of Hurricane Ian on freight markets was instant
The impression on freight markets was additionally evident in Florida final week, the place outbound common linehaul charges elevated by $0.07/mile to $1.20/mile after dropping for the three weeks prior. In Lakeland, FL, essentially the most impacted Florida freight market the place Hurricane Ian made landfall, dry van spot charges for outbound masses elevated by $0.08/mile to $1.12/mile. As well as, outbound common linehaul charges in Atlanta (see Determine 1) and Savannah elevated by $0.03/mile and $0.08/mile, respectively, within the two main markets that provide vital freight volumes into Florida. They’d been dropping for 3 weeks earlier than Hurricane Ian made landfall.
Inbound dry van load posts into Lakeland have been solely up 1% final week, with far more quantity anticipated this week from close by staging markets. In distinction, inbound volumes into Southeast freight staging markets, together with Montgomery, Tallahassee, Macon, and Tifton, jumped by 20% w/w after dropping for the prior month. In different markets, reefer spot charges for outbound masses have been up barely by simply $0.03/mile whereas flatbed capability was very tight, leading to linehaul charges outbound flatbed charges in southern Florida surging final week, growing by $0.36/mile to $2.03/mile for outbound masses.
How lengthy will the Florida freight take to recuperate, if in any respect?
We are able to anticipate appreciable market instability within the coming weeks and primarily based on previous hurricane impression, inbound charges ought to stay elevated far longer than outbound charges given the big inbound freight quantity compared to outbound.
Figure 1: Atlanta Outbound Dry Van Linehaul Spot Charges Over the Prior 7 Days to High 25 Locations
