Dry Van Report: Freight recession fails to materialize in Q2 – DAT Freight & Analytics

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The Might 2022 studying of the for-hire trucking ton-mile seasonally adjusted index produced by Yemisi Bolumole and Jason Miller at Michigan State College (MSU) noticed a 1.4% enhance over April and a 5.0% enhance over Might 2021. Might 2022 can be 1.6% above Might 2018, which held the prior report for trucking exercise in Might. The ton-mileage index is derived from the bodily amount output for 41 totally different trade sectors that generate freight. Relating to subcomponents, freight-weighted mining and manufacturing information is virtually equal to 2018 ranges (down because of the decrease auto sector). In distinction, wholesale, retail, and warehousing exercise elevate ton-miles above 2018 ranges. 

Based on Jason Miller, “we didn’t see a freight recession for trucking happen within the second quarter. TTMI is probably the most all-encompassing measure of trucking exercise and outperforms all different indexes in correlation with Census Bureau’s income information for trucking. The year-over-year ton-mile positive aspects align nicely with the year-over-year tonnage positive aspects reported by Previous Dominion, ArcBest, and Saia, so these estimates appear cheap.”

The Transportation Providers Index (TSI) measures the month-to-month adjustments within the output of companies supplied by the for-hire transportation industries. Adjustments within the TSI replicate adjustments within the demand for items and companies. The Freight Transportation Providers Index (TSI) rose 0.3% in Might from April after a one-month decline, in line with the U.S. Division of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). As well as, from Might 2021 to Might 2022, the index rose 2.6% in comparison with a decline of two.0% from Might 2019 to Might 2021. The Freight TSI elevated in Might from April attributable to seasonally adjusted will increase in trucking, rail carloads, and rail intermodal, whereas air freight, water, and pipeline declined.

All charges cited beneath exclude gas surcharges until in any other case famous.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) took the primary spot from the Port of Los Angeles for the very best quantity of containerized imports in June. Following June’s 15% m/m enhance, import volumes at the moment are up 24% y/y, driving increased spot market exercise for the fifth week. Load posts within the Elizabeth, NJ, freight market are up 32% within the final month after rising 14% final week, leading to capability tightening over the identical timeframe. Linehaul spot charges in Elizabeth elevated $0.01/mile to a median outbound fee of $1.73/mile final week, which is up $0.08/mile within the earlier month. 

Masses to Boston, 233 miles to the northeast, elevated by $26/load to a median of $1,069/load final week, making it the primary time linehaul charges had elevated on this lane since February after they have been $338/load increased. Spot charges have been heading in the wrong way for hundreds to Atlanta after dropping barely beneath the June common final week at $1.48/mile. Capability on the Elizabeth to Houston lane tightened final week – spot charges at the moment are $0.05/mile increased than the June common at $1.14/mile and $0.34/mile decrease than final 12 months. 

On the West Coast in California, Stockton and San Francisco markets have been the one two to report positive aspects final week. Mixed outbound spot charges have been up $0.02/mile to a median of $2.09/mile, whereas charges dropped $0.04/mile within the different 4 markets (Los Angeles, Fresno, Ontario, and San Diego), the place linehaul charges averaged $2.26/mile final week. 

Dry van load posts bounced again final week, rising by 12% w/w, whereas gear posts jumped by 31% to the very best degree recorded in mid-July. At simply over 1.1m load posts, volumes are 21% decrease than the earlier 12 months however 51% increased than in 2018. The online impact on final week’s dry van load-to-truck ratio was a slight lower to three.94.  

Dry van linehaul charges decreased by lower than a penny-per-mile final week to a nationwide common of $1.97/mile. Reefer spot charges are $0.41/mile decrease than the earlier 12 months however are nonetheless $0.28/mile increased than the common of pre-pandemic years however precisely the place they have been in 2018. In comparison with DAT’s Prime 50 lanes measured by hundreds moved, which averaged $2.39/mile final week, nationwide common linehaul spot charges are $0.42/mile decrease.  

Learn the complete weekly market replace.

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