Flatbed Report: Troubles in the housing market could hurt flatbed demand – DAT Freight & Analytics

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In response to the Nationwide Affiliation of House Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo, Housing Market Index (HMI), “Rising inflation and better mortgage charges are slowing site visitors of potential dwelling consumers and placing a damper on builder sentiment.” The HMI relies on a month-to-month survey of dwelling builders. In a troubling signal for the housing market, builder confidence available in the market for newly-built single-family houses posted its sixth straight month-to-month decline in June, based on the NAHB report. The June HMI dropped two factors to 67, 17% decrease than June final 12 months and the bottom studying since June 2020. 

In response to NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, “The housing market faces each demand-side and supply-side challenges. Residential building materials prices are up 19% year-over-year with value will increase for numerous constructing inputs, apart from lumber, which has skilled latest declines as a consequence of a housing slowdown. On the demand-side of the market, the rise for mortgage charges for the primary half of 2022 has priced out a major variety of potential dwelling consumers, as mirrored by the decline for the site visitors measure of the HMI.”

Within the manufacturing sector, there was higher information following the discharge of the U.S. Census Bureau M3 report. Could’s new orders for manufactured items elevated by 1.6% m/m representing a rise in twelve of the final 13 months. Shipments elevated by 1.8% m/m representing a rise in twenty-four of the final twenty-five months. As a number one indicator of flatbed demand, new orders for manufactured sturdy items elevated 0.7% m/m in Could.

 

All charges cited under exclude gas surcharges until in any other case famous.

After dropping for the earlier three weeks, load submit volumes surged, rising by 86% final week in Laredo. In consequence, capability tightened quickly, pushing up spot charges by $0.28/mile to a median outbound of $2.86/mile. On the Laredo to Ft. Price lane, charges elevated by $0.26/mile to $2.89/mile – the second-highest studying in 12 months and $0.02/mile greater y/y. On the number-one flatbed quantity lane from Houston to Ft. Price, charges reached a 12-month excessive of $4.29/mile regardless that the load quantity dropped by 2% w/w. 

Within the Midwest Area, capability tightened in Kansas Metropolis, MO, following a 63% w/w enhance in load submit volumes following 4 weeks of lowering volumes. Spot charges have adopted an analogous month-to-month development till final week’s $0.07/mile to a median of $2.27/mile. On the 600-mile haul west to Denver, flatbed charges had been flat at $2.48/mile whereas capability loosened on the short-haul lane to Omaha. Spot charges dropped by $178/load final week to a median of $505/load or round $400/load decrease than the earlier 12 months. 

Flatbed load submit (LP) volumes are sitting round 22% decrease than this time in 2018 when the bull market began to show. Final week’s LP volumes had been nearly equivalent to 2020 ranges however proceed to trace seasonally the closest to 2018 ranges with gear posts (EP) monitoring the closest to 2019 ranges when the market was additionally over-supplied. Because of decrease LP and EP ranges final week, the flatbed load-to-truck (LTR) ratio decreased to 26.67.

Flatbed linehaul charges had been flat final week ending the week at round $2.51/mile. Demand is clearly cooling off for flatbed carriers following the $0.11/mile lower in spot charges within the final month with 2018 charge directionality the almost definitely consequence this 12 months. Flatbed spot charges are actually $0.23/mile decrease than final 12 months however nonetheless 3% or $0.07/mile greater than in 2018. In comparison with prior non-pandemic years, flatbed linehaul charges are $0.49/mile greater. 

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